Doomsday but Not for These Reasons

• The Adaptive Gap and the Future of Civilization by Mike Hall, 7/3/98
  
  

"As more individuals find thenselves unable to bridge the Adaptive Gap, more people will find themselves unable to cope with the demands of a constantly changing, ever more unnatural, style of living - unable to the extent that they become non-functioning members of society, unable to fulfill expectations, unable to hold a job, perhaps unable to care for their basic needs. As this process continues, the percentage of the population that can no longer cope and are therefore non-functional will grow. At some critical point, society itself will become non-functional. Food production and distribution, transportation, power generation and distribution, communications systems and most social norms of behavior will simply fail." Per Mike Hall, 7/3/98

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Mike: My bets are somewhat different. Hunter and gatherer minds build hunter and gatherer cultures(See my essay on Supernormal Stimuli); however, we "like" (perhaps due to sensory mechanisms)things that are bigger, livelier, and more powerful. Homeostatic costs (Bateson, 1963) limit the size of giraffe necks, they will do so with us and in a tolerable manner unless there is a dramatic change in the fitness landscape.

However, there will be. Petroleum and population will pull us down. Hardin was logically correct about lifeboat ethics even in the 60's but none of us will cut off medical aid; none of us will cut of religious aid that proscribes population control Educating women (perhaps the single, most POWERFUL step because it seems to compete successfully with CNS changes that are preludes to mating) must occur and is perhaps our greatest leverage on peace.

The pervasive, dangerous "mismatch" is between our reproductive drive and finite environments. Technology is NOT the problem although we sometimes have difficulty managing it effectively (See Nesse & Berridge in Science, earlier this year).

I would like to see us diversify and get off of this unstable planet but am not sure we will apportion the resources to do so.

• Doomsday vs Utopia by bill, 7/5/98
  • Polished Toolkits by Mary Beth Coggins, 7/7/98
    • Rusty Toolkits by Mike Hall, 7/15/98
      • On the Rate of Genetic Adaptation by Mat Huff, 7/30/98
        • Rate of Genetic Adaptations in Humans by M. Hall, 7/30/98
          • Human Evolution? by Mary Beth Coggins, 7/31/98
            • See discussions near the top by (No author), 8/2/98
            • I'll Be The Guinea Pig by Mat Huff, 8/5/98
              • Thanks for being the guinea pig!! by Mary Beth Coggins, 8/17/98
              • Thanks for being thoughtful by M. Hall, 9/5/98
                • 1 reply
        • Extended Phenotypes by James Brody, 8/2/98
  • A Dystopic Future? by Mike Hall, 7/15/98
    • Adaptation is not the slave's problem... by bill, 7/20/98
      • I Agree, but technology shapes our environment by Mike Hall, 9/16/98
        • Extended Phenotypes by James Brody, 9/17/98
• Doomsday for lots of reasons by Mike Hall, 7/15/98
  • hunter-gatherer minds ... build hunter-gatherer cultures by James Brody, 7/15/98
    • A Failure to Communicate by Mike Hall, 7/20/98