I just dropped by and saw your message. I don't see you as a pig of any sort - more like Capt. Kirk, boldly going... Your message reminds me just how difficult it is to make a point briefly, without misunderstandings. Your example of the aboriginal thrust into the modern world is one point. We (both aboriginal and modern) humans are genetically shaped to interact with a stone-age environment. The interaction of nature and nurture that leads to optimal development is thrown off track by the fact that few of us grow up in a stone-age environment. Old genes plus new environment equals a maladapted individual, I would think.
The major misunderstanding I see is in your expression that it's foolish to try to predict the path of the human species based on past or present conditions, plus your comments about market forces. We're not trying to predict the future stock market here. We are starting from the position that (a) genetically, we are stone-age creatures, (b) we no longer live in a stone-age world, (c) this mismatch creates many problems for people who have difficulty adapting/coping with modern life, and (assuming that you're with me so far), (d) the modern world we live in is changing and will continue to change, thus making the adaptive gap between our genetic endowment and this changing environment ever more difficult. At which of these steps do we disagree?
I agree with you that applying the past rules does not allow one to predict the future of something such as the stock market. However, given that we are communicating via a technology that did not exist 100 years ago, do you not see that technology has changed the way we live? Do you really think that technological progress will stop (barring some pandemic)? Given that computer speed and memory have doubled every few years, do you really doubt that in 10 more years PCs will be faster, smarter and possess new functions? There is only one certainty in life and that is change. While we cannot predict with any confidence just what changes will occur, I do think that we CAN predict that whatever changes do occur will most likely move our environment further away from the stone-age one for which we are genetically adapted. It goes without saying that our genes do influence how we think and behave (otherwise, why would we be communicating on an evolutionary psychology website?), consequently, I see trouble down the road.
I hope this note makes my position more clear and that we both have a better understanding of each others viewpoints.
Thank you for your comments. They are always appreciated.